A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
